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‎dnc/150606 Does not compute.md

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The world we live in is full of bafflement, frustration and incomprehension. Although technology can’t be blamed for everything it is central to much of what we find difficult on a daily basis, whether it be figuring out how to recover a lost password, set the timer on the oven or just get inside the shrink wrap of a product that didn’t need packaging in the first place.
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So a few weeks back I had the idea of starting a blog where I could complain and explain at the same time, and this is where it starts. In future pages I’ll try to unbaffle, to defrustrate and to make sense of the incomprehensible. Yes, I’ve taken on a huge task and I may fall at one of the early hurdles, but I had to try.
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From time to time I may be tempted to stray into politics, social issues, linguistics or even religion. My views are my own and I have no wish to offend, though I have no respect for unthinking assumptions dressed up as common sense.
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On the next page is my first subject, “Do I need it?”, where I intend to question the true meaning of the word “need”.

‎dnc/150909 Do I need it?.md

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[![](https://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/090901.jpg)](https://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/090901.jpg "Do I need it?")
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We all do it; we really want that new smartphone, designer jacket or whatever but need to reassure ourselves that we’re doing the right thing in making the purchase. This isn’t just a matter of “Can I afford it?”; no, there’s a moral judgement going on in here. We seem to have a strange need to justify – to ourselves or to others – the actual fact of the purchase, as if it’s a guilty little secret we know we won’t be able to keep for long.
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Unfortunately, if you had to ask the question the answer was probably “no”, but the solution is simple: ask a different question. Let me explain.
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Our basic needs are simple, and no different to those of primitive societies:
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1. Food
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2. Shelter
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3. Warmth
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4. Clothing
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Obviously these needs can’t be met without considering how society operates. The item most noticeably absent from the list is “money”, because in our society, without it none of the others can easily be obtained. But that doesn’t make money a “need”; only a means to an end. Throughout human history, many societies have operated entirely by barter and without the use of tokens representing value (which is what money is).
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We should also remember there are groups within society who do not require money to meet their needs. These include the young, the elderly and the sick. Society provides for them without any request for payment.
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#### Different kinds of need
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This is all very well for what you might call “basic needs” but there’s another usage of the word, as in “I need X in order to do Y”. So I need an iPhone in order to keep in touch with my friends on Facebook, or I need a top-end pair of Nike trainers to avoid being a social outcast at school. These are what most people are really thinking about when they talk about needing something.
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I blame the English language for being sloppy. Let’s stop confusing “need” with “want”. There’s nothing wrong with aspiration, but don’t go pretending life will end if today’s wants are not met.
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So to conclude, whatever it is you almost certainly don’t need it. This is not to say that you shouldn’t have it, but don’t regard it as one of life’s essentials. Try to remember that the item concerned is just an object of desire, and that these tend to tarnish after a while.
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If I’ve spoiled the enjoyment of anticipating your new purchase, made you pause before rushing ahead and thereby changed your mind about the “need” then I’ve also saved you money, for which I hope you are truly grateful.
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The alternative is to be honest with yourself, say “I want it because I’m worth it” (to borrow from l’Oreal), then go ahead and make the purchase, safe in the comforting knowledge that you’re honest about your true motives.

‎dnc/150916 The Dislike button.md

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* * *
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In the news yesterday was the volte-face by Facebook, whereby they are caving in to popular demand and introducing a Dislike button to go alongside the Like. “At last!”, I hear the massed chorus. After all, if I can Like something then why should I not be able to Dislike something else?
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Facebook is so relentlessly upbeat, so Happy Happy Happy. That’s fine for the endless cute cats and their ilk, but there are a lot of posts that require a more considered judgement. No action really leaves no indication that you even read the thing, so the only way to comment is to like it. What if you find it unlikeable – or worse? Saying nothing sort of indicates acceptance.
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Hence the need for a Dislike button. After all, many forums have up and down voting buttons for each posting, so we can tell which are the most popular. On these, articles are posted by anyone. There is usually a moderator to keep things in order and prevent spammers but they don’t favour people and there’s no way you can bar someone who votes down your article, even if you knew who they were – which you don’t.
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However, Facebook isn’t a forum. The articles on your Wall are yours, and Facebook tells you who Liked them. In the future they’ll also tell you who Disliked them too. Everyone want Likes, but nobody wants a Dislike, so if you get one the obvious thing to do is un-Friend the person who hit the Dislike button. One less Friend for you, but also for them and perhaps they’ll think twice before Disliking anyone else. After a while, the only way to stay a Friend is to Like everything they say, never daring to Dislike.
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Y’see where I’m going with this? Facebook may have a Dislike button but nobody will use it because instant unFriending will be the result. Sycophancy rules, OK?
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Whether I’m right about all this remains to be seen; after all, the announcement was only made yesterday. Only time will tell.

‎dnc/150923 Black swan.md

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[![](https://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15092301-732x488.jpg)](https://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15092301.jpg "Black Swan")
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This article isn’t about technology. Well, I did warn about the odd excursion and I just felt this subject was interesting enough to pursue for a while.
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According to Wikipedia, a Black Swan event is one “that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight”.
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#### The status quo
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I’ve been reading “The Establishment, and how they get away with it” by the noted left-wing author Owen Jones, who describes how the centre ground of politics has moved decisively to the right over the past two or three decades. Without a balancing work from a right-wing source (which I suspect would be far less readable) it’s difficult to form an objective view of the subject, so I’m not going into whether I agree or not. I’m more interested in how change comes about.
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Owen Jones describes persuasively the mechanisms that have caused the shift in the centre ground, from where – for example – it was once considered right and proper for essential services such as water, power and transport to be maintained as public services, to the position now where such utilities are run as private companies answerable only to shareholders, yet picking up huge state subsidies without which they could not continue to function.
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[![15092302](http://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15092302-300x150.jpg)](http://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15092302.jpg)
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It is quite permissible to regard this shift as either a good or a bad thing, depending on your choice of assumptions to underpin it, and I’ll leave the arguments to better minds than my own. What interests me is the belief held by both sides that change of this kind can be managed.
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We’ve had an extraordinary couple of decades where things have apparently moved in a controlled manner, but I think there are reasons to believe this can’t last much longer. The economic shocks of 2008 were a warning, but the conventional wisdom has it that these were an unfortunate blip caused by one-off events that can – by prudent management – be prevented from happening again. I think this is desperately over-optimistic and I don’t believe it for a moment.
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#### Trouble in Blighty
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I apologise to any non-British readers for using a British perspective, but it’s the one with which I’m most familiar. Here are a few items, in no particular order:
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* The Scottish Nationalists (SNP)
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* Euro-scepticism
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* Jeremy Corbyn
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* Mass migration
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* Climate change
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Let’s start with the first three. The SNP and Labour under its new leader both represent a major deviation from the centre ground currently occupied by the Conservative government by virtue of its election victory in May. Both are hostile to the austerity programme promoted by the Establishment (which includes the government and most of business) as the only sensible way to get the economy back onto safe ground. Now given the overall majority enjoyed by the government this may not be considered to matter very much, but in truth our system only works with the consent of the people, and there is always a tipping point at which countries become ungovernable.
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<div id="attachment_20" style="width: 310px" class="wp-caption aligncenter">[![epa04685522 Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Nicola Sturgeon (C) after delivering her closing speech at the party's spring conference in Glasgow, Scotland, 29 March 2015\. The SNP are hosting their 2015 Campaign Conference in Glasgow on 28/29 March 2015\. EPA/STRINGER](http://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15092303-300x187.jpg)](http://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15092303.jpg)
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Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Nicola Sturgeon after delivering her closing speech at the party’s spring conference in Glasgow, Scotland, 29 March 2015
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</div>
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The SNP are adeptly persuading Scots that the Westminster government is indifferent or even hostile to their wishes, and there’s little David Cameron can do to change that belief without alienating his core support from the City and the South East. The current hostility in England to the EU is making this worse; the Scots have no desire to be taken out of Europe and the more likely this becomes the more they will close ranks and demand another referendum. David Cameron is determined not to go down in history as the prime minister who presided over the break-up of the United Kingdom, so he might be wise to advance his retirement plans and leave this particular poisoned chalice to someone else.
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[![15092304](http://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15092304-300x187.jpg)](http://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15092304.jpg)
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Enter Labour under Jeremy Corbyn. Although the Establishment pretends otherwise, his success has been in mobilising not those voters who failed to back Labour at the election but those who failed to vote at all. There are rather a lot of them. Mr Corbyn is seen by them – and others – not as a left-wing politician but as a non-politician, since he refuses to indulge in the usual “game” of politics. It’s surprising how sensible he sounds, not at all in line with his reputation as a rabid left-wing trouble-maker. I believe he may be a new Teflon Man, to whom little of the usual mud will stick; instead most of what is thrown at him will ricochet back to those who flung it, making them look ridiculous, spiteful and pathetic.
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<div id="attachment_22" style="width: 310px" class="wp-caption aligncenter">[![June 7, 2014 - Mediterranean Sea / Italy: Italian navy rescues asylum seekers traveling by boat off the coast of Africa. More than 2,000 migrants jammed in 25 boats arrived in Italy June 12, ending an international operation to rescue asylum seekers traveling from Libya. They were taken to three Italian ports and likely to be transferred to refugee centers inland. Hundreds of women and dozens of babies, were rescued by the frigate FREMM Bergamini as part of the Italian navy's "Mare Nostrum" operation, launched last year after two boats sank and more than 400 drowned. Favorable weather is encouraging thousands of migrants from Syria, Eritrea and other sub-Saharan countries to arrive on the Italian coast in the coming days. Cost of passage is in the 2,500 Euros range for Africans and 3,500 for Middle Easterners, per person. Over 50,000 migrants have landed Italy in 2014\. Many thousands are in Libya waiting to make the crossing. (Massimo Sestini/Polaris)](http://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15092305-300x200.jpg)](http://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15092305.jpg)
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June 7, 2014 – Mediterranean Sea / Italy: Italian navy rescues asylum seekers traveling by boat off the coast of Africa
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</div>
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Let’s leave domestic politics for a moment and look across the continent. Although the British obsess over all things European, mass migration may turn out to be the thing that really hits us hardest. So far we’ve only seen the very start of what’s coming. Britain has to play its part – it can’t cut itself off completely from its neighbours without alienating them, and this can only lead to withdrawal of cooperation by both sides and on all fronts. If this happens we may find ourselves living in splendid isolation under a more hard line, right-wing version of the present Tories, or the SNP and Labour may become the beneficiaries and take us sharply left, but whoever is left holding the baby will find themselves with problems beyond our current imagining. There is no sign of any reduction in the number of wars in North Africa and the Middle East, and with possibly millions of arrivals from countries very different to our own there will be culture clashes all over Europe. We may find the whole continent becomes a very different and less comfortable place to the one we are used to.
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[![15092306](http://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15092306-300x210.jpg)](http://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15092306.jpg)
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It’s hard to tell if climate change should be on the list. Perhaps not for the short term, but in the longer term it will bring many more pressures on agriculture, food sources and energy.
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#### The Black Swan
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So where’s the Black Swan in all this? Well, it’s an unpredictable (by definition) event or series of events arising from a combination of any or all of the above factors. Or something else completely, such as a giant meteorite strike. Economic life hangs by a thread, being that of confidence. If people believe things will continue much as they always have, they will behave as they always have. As soon as they believe otherwise all bets are off. Remember the tanker drivers’ strike of 2000? The panic brought about by motorists’ fears of not being able to fill up their tanks brought near chaos to the country and is a salutary reminder of how close we can get to complete economic collapse when things don’t go as expected.
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[![15092307](http://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15092307-300x187.jpg)](http://dnc.eclecity.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15092307.jpg)
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The job of the government and its allies is to hold the tiller and maintain a course, yet storms are brewing on all sides. My point – finally – is that if they fail, nobody will see it coming, just as they didn’t in summer 2000 when the fuel suddenly ran out, or in late 2007 when the entire economic order wobbled and nearly collapsed. My personal belief is that within the next few years a major black swan event will come; it may be one of the above or something completely from left field, it will be a lot worse this time and it unless we are very lucky it will shake our society to the core. As the Chinese curse goes, “May you live in interesting times”.
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#### Stop Press
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Just as I was about to post this article the VW scandal broke. The company has apparently been deceiving – well, the whole world, I guess – about the green credentials of their diesel engines. Within hours their stock price fell into the toilet, and it’s quite possible that some of their rivals will be following them. The stock market index dropped like a stone and we can only guess what it will do to VW sales. Now that’s what I call a Black Swan event.

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